Narcotics trafficking in West Africa: a governance challenge

This repository item contains a single issue of The Pardee Papers, a series papers that began publishing in 2008 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. The Pardee Papers series features working papers by Pardee Center Fellows and other invited authors. Papers in this series explore current and future challenges by anticipating the pathways to human progress, human development, and human well-being. This series includes papers on a wide range of topics, with a special emphasis on interdisciplinary perspectives and a development orientation.West Africa is one of the most impoverished, underdeveloped, and instability-prone regions in the world. Many of the nation-states in the region are empirically weak: they lack the capacity to deliver public goods and services to their citizens, do not claim effective control over their territories, are marked by high levels of official corruption and are plagued by political instability and violent conflict. Since 2004, the region has faced an unprecedented surge in illicit narcotics (primarily cocaine) trafficking, raising fears within the international community that foreign (largely South American) trafficking groups would engender escalated corruption and violence across the region. This paper examines the effect that the surge in narcotics trafficking has had on governance and security in the region, paying particular attention to the experience of Guinea-Bissau and neighboring Republic of Guinea (Guinea-Conakry), two West African states that have been particularly affected by the illicit trade. The central argument presented is that narcotics trafficking is only one facet of the overall challenge of state weakness and fragility in the region. The profound weakness of many West African states has enabled foreign trafficking groups to develop West Africa into an entrepôt for cocaine destined for the large and profitable European market, sometimes with the active facilitation of high-level state actors. Thus, simply implementing counter-narcotics initiatives in the region will have a limited impact without a long-term commitment to strengthening state capacity, improving political transparency and accountability, and tackling poverty alleviation and underdevelopment. Without addressing the root issues that allowed for the penetration of trafficking groups into the states of the region in the first place, West Africa will remain susceptible to similar situations in the future, undermining the region’s nascent progress in the realms of governance, security and development. Peter L. McGuire graduated from Boston University in 2010 with a master’s degree in International Relations, with a certificate in African Studies. His current research interests include armed conflict, political corruption, and state failure in sub-Saharan Africa. Peter wrote “Narcotics Trafficking in West Africa: A Governance Challenge” while he was a 2009 Pardee Center Graduate Summer Fellow. This paper is part of the Africa 2060 Project, a Pardee Center program of research, publications, and symposia exploring African futures in various aspects related to development on continental and regional scales. For more information, visit www-staging.bu.edu/pardee/research

Preliminary assessment of indeterminism in the GNU/Linux Kernel

Paper presented at Strathmore University Research Week on 31 July 200

A coherent middle Pliocene magnetostratigraphy, Wanganui Basin, New Zealand

We document magnetostratigraphies for three river sections (Turakina, Rangitikei, Wanganui) in Wanganui Basin and interpret them as corresponding to the Upper Gilbert, the Gauss and lower Matuyama Chrons of the Geomagnetic Polarity Timescale, in agreement with foraminiferal biostratigraphic datums. The Gauss-Gilbert transition (3.58 Ma) is located in both the Turakina and Wanganui River sections, while the Gauss-Matuyama transition (2.58 Ma) is located in all three sections, as are the lower and upper boundaries of the Mammoth (3.33–3.22 Ma) and Kaena (3.11–3.04 Ma) Subchrons. Our interpretations are based in part on the re-analysis of existing datasets and in part on the acquisition and analysis of new data, particularly for the Wanganui River section. The palaeomagnetic dates of these six horizons provide the only numerical age control for a thick (up to 2000 m) mudstone succession (Tangahoe Mudstone) that accumulated chiefly in upper bathyal and outer neritic palaeoenvironments. In the Wanganui River section the mean sediment accumulation rate is estimated to have been about 1.8 m/k.y., in the Turakina section it was about 1.5 m/k.y., and in the Rangitikei section, the mean rate from the beginning of the Mammoth Subchron to the Hautawa Shellbed was about 1.1 m/k.y. The high rates may be associated with the progradation of slope clinoforms northward through the basin. This new palaeomagnetic timescale allows revised correlations to be made between cyclothems in the Rangitikei River section and the global Oxygen Isotope Stages (OIS) as represented in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 846. The 16 depositional sequences between the end of the Mammoth Subchron and the Gauss-Matuyama Boundary are correlated with OIS MG2 to 100. The cyclothems average 39 k.y. in duration in our age model, which is close to the 41 k.y. duration of the orbital obliquity cycles. We support the arguments advanced recently in defence of the need for local New Zealand stages as a means of classifying New Zealand sedimentary successions, and strongly oppose the proposal to move stage boundaries to selected geomagnetic polarity transitions. The primary magnetisation of New Zealand mudstone is frequently overprinted with secondary components of diagenetic origin, and hence it is often difficult to obtain reliable magnetostratigraphic records. We suggest specific approaches, analytical methods, and criteria to help ensure robustness and coherency in the palaeomagnetic identification of chron boundaries in typical New Zealand Cenozoic mudstone successions

Optimal diagnostic tests for sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease based on support vector machine classification of RT-QuIC data

In this work we study numerical construction of optimal clinical diagnostic tests for detecting sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD). A cerebrospinal fluid sample (CSF) from a suspected sCJD patient is subjected to a process which initiates the aggregation of a protein present only in cases of sCJD. This aggregation is indirectly observed in real-time at regular intervals, so that a longitudinal set of data is constructed that is then analysed for evidence of this aggregation. The best existing test is based solely on the final value of this set of data, which is compared against a threshold to conclude whether or not aggregation, and thus sCJD, is present. This test criterion was decided upon by analysing data from a total of 108 sCJD and non-sCJD samples, but this was done subjectively and there is no supporting mathematical analysis declaring this criterion to be exploiting the available data optimally. This paper addresses this deficiency, seeking to validate or improve the test primarily via support vector machine (SVM) classification. Besides this, we address a number of additional issues such as i) early stopping of the measurement process, ii) the possibility of detecting the particular type of sCJD and iii) the incorporation of additional patient data such as age, sex, disease duration and timing of CSF sampling into the construction of the test.Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures, 1 tabl

Initial Incidence of White Matter Hyperintensities on MRI in Astronauts

Introduction: Previous literature has described the increase in white matter hyperintensity (WMH) burden associated with hypobaric exposure in the U-2 and altitude chamber operating personnel. Although astronauts have similar hypobaric exposure pressures to the U2 pilot population, astronauts have far fewer exposures and each exposure would be associated with a much lower level of decompression stress due to rigorous countermeasures to prevent decompression sickness. Therefore, we postulated that the WMH burden in the astronaut population would be less than in U2 pilots. Methods: Twenty-one post-flight de-identified astronaut MRIs (5 mm slice thickness FLAIR sequences) were evaluated for WMH count and volume. The only additional data provided was an age range of the astronauts (43-57) and if they had ever performed an EVA (13 yes, 8 no). Results: WMH count in these 21 astronaut MRI was 21.0 +/- 24.8 (mean+/- SD) and volume was 0.382 +/- 0.602 ml, which was significantly higher than previously published results for the U2 pilots. No significant differences between EVA and no EVA groups existed. Age range of astronaut population is not directly comparable to the U2 population. Discussion: With significantly less frequent (sometimes none) and less stressful hypobaric exposures, yet a much higher incidence of increased WMH, this indicates the possibility of additional mechanisms beyond hypobaric exposure. This increase unlikely to be attributable just to the differences in age between astronauts and U2 pilots. Forward work includes continuing review of post-flight MRI and evaluation of pre to post flight MRI changes if available. Data mining for potential WMH risk factors includes collection of age, sex, spaceflight experience, EVA hours, other hypobaric exposures, hyperoxic exposures, radiation, high performance aircraft experience and past medical history. Finally, neurocognitive and vision/eye results will be evaluated for any evidence of impairment linked to increased WMH

Superconductivity in Co-doped LaFeAsO

Here we report the synthesis and basic characterization of LaFe1-xCoxAsO for several values of x. The parent phase LaFeAsO orders antiferromagnetically (TN ~ 145 K). Replacing Fe with Co is expected to both electron dope the system and introduce disorder in the FeAs layer. For x = 0.05 antiferromagnetic order is destroyed and superconductivity is observed at Tconset = 11.2 K. For x = 0.11 superconductivity is observed at Tc(onset) = 14.3 K, and for x = 0.15 Tc = 6.0 K. Superconductivity is not observed for x = 0.2 and 0.5, but for x = 1, the material appears to be ferromagnetic (Tc ~ 56 K) as judged by magnetization measurements. We conclude that Co is an effective dopant to induce superconductivity. Somewhat surprisingly, the system appears to tolerate considerable disorder in the FeAs planes.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Relativistic central--field Green's functions for the RATIP package

From perturbation theory, Green's functions are known for providing a simple and convenient access to the (complete) spectrum of atoms and ions. Having these functions available, they may help carry out perturbation expansions to any order beyond the first one. For most realistic potentials, however, the Green's functions need to be calculated numerically since an analytic form is known only for free electrons or for their motion in a pure Coulomb field. Therefore, in order to facilitate the use of Green's functions also for atoms and ions other than the hydrogen--like ions, here we provide an extension to the Ratip program which supports the computation of relativistic (one--electron) Green's functions in an -- arbitrarily given -- central--field potential \rV(r). Different computational modes have been implemented to define these effective potentials and to generate the radial Green's functions for all bound--state energies $E < 0$. In addition, care has been taken to provide a user--friendly component of the Ratip package by utilizing features of the Fortran 90/95 standard such as data structures, allocatable arrays, or a module--oriented design.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figur

How behavioral economics can help to avoid ‘The last mile problem’ in whole genome sequencing

Editorial summary Failure to consider lessons from behavioral economics in the case of whole genome sequencing may cause us to run into the ‘last mile problem’ - the failure to integrate newly developed technology, on which billions of dollars have been invested, into society in a way that improves human behavior and decision-making

Acute Exercise Increases Adiponectin Levels in Abdominally Obese Men

Objective. To examine the effect of acute and short-term (~1 week) aerobic exercise training on plasma adiponectin levels in inactive, abdominally obese men. Materials and Methods. Inactive and abdominally obese men (n = 38, waist circumference ≥102 cm) recruited from Kingston, Canada were randomly allocated to perform three bouts of aerobic treadmill exercise at either low (50% VO2 peak) or high (75% VO2 peak) intensity during a 1-week period. Blood samples were taken before and after the first exercise session and 24–72 hours following the completion of the final exercise session. Results. Adiponectin levels were elevated immediately following an acute bout of exercise at both high and low intensities (High: 5.79 ± 0.42 versus 5.05 ± 0.41 ug/mL; Low: 5.24 ± 0.44 versus 4.37 ± 0.44 ug/mL, P < 0.05) and remained elevated following 30 minutes of rest. In comparison to baseline, adiponectin levels were also elevated 24–72 hours following the final exercise session (High: 5.47 ± 0.48 versus 4.88 ± 0.48 ug/mL; Low: 5.18 ± 0.49 versus 4.47 ± 0.49 ug/mL, P < 0.05). Conclusion. Both acute and short-term aerobic exercise result in a significant increase in plasma adiponectin levels in inactive, abdominally obese men independent of intensity